The 40/60 Split

The 40/60 Split refers to a critical industry metric regarding the cannibalization impact of non-alcoholic (NOLO) beer on traditional alcohol sales.

Based on internal data from anheuser-busch-inbev, the metric reveals that only 40% of non-alcoholic volume cannibalizes existing traditional beer sales, while the remaining 60% represents purely incremental growth.

Strategic Importance

Historically, beverage conglomerates feared that introducing 0.0% options would simply eat into their existing high-margin alcohol sales. The 40/60 split mathematically proves that NOLO beer is a net-positive growth driver.

This 60% incrementality is achieved by unlocking historically non-drinking occasions, expanding the brand’s share-of-occasion. Consumers are purchasing NA beer for moments where traditional alcohol was never an option, such as:

• Weekday lunches
• Post-workout recovery
• Active social settings
• Commuting or driving occasions

Limitations and Data Gaps

While the 40/60 split is highly cited and validates the NOLO beer category, there is a significant data gap regarding other beverage formats. It remains unproven whether this favorable ratio holds true for NA spirits or NA wine, which have different consumption rituals and face different substitution dynamics (see spirits-cannibalization-data-gap).