Research: Missing Basket-Level Scanner Data

Summary

This source analyzes point-of-sale basket-level-scanner-data from major market research firms like nielseniq, circana, and iwsr to understand consumer purchasing behaviors regarding NoLo (No and Low Alcohol) beverages. The data demystifies the NoLo consumer, proving they are highly valuable “flexitarians” rather than strict abstainers.

Key Findings

• The Flexitarian Consumer: nielseniq data reveals that 92-93% of NoLo buyers concurrently purchase traditional alcohol products. Crucially, these buyers spend approximately 41% more on total alcohol than the average beverage buyer, making them a highly lucrative demographic.
• Cannibalization Measurement: circana defines cannibalization mathematically at the scanner level as: (lost units on existing SKUs / gains on focal SKU) * 100. This allows brands to optimize trade spend and shelf placement to ensure net brand growth.
• Market Sizing & Growth: iwsr projects the U.S. no-alcohol market will reach $5 billion by 2028 (an 18% CAGR), driven heavily by premiumization. Non-alcoholic beer dominates the sector (85-87% of sales), while NA spirits are experiencing hyper-growth (88.4% YoY).
• Data Gaps: There are significant valuation discrepancies between data providers due to blurred definitions of “non-alcoholic” (e.g., including traditional sodas). Furthermore, while basket data proves cross-purchasing-behavior, it fails to resolve the spirits-cannibalization-data-gap because it cannot show exactly which beverage a NoLo product replaced on a specific consumption occasion.

Strategic Implications

The data strongly supports a multi-beverage-strategy. Because brand loyalty in NoLo is relatively low and dual-purchasing is high, NoLo acts as a rotational repertoire beverage. Stocking NoLo products does not just cater to a niche; it attracts the most lucrative overall beverage shoppers who engage in zebra-striping.